2006年考研政治理论单元预测1-第8部分
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也会飘起紫色的雪。
另一些火山则会温和许多。它们喷出的岩浆只能到达火山口，然后顺延山坡缓缓流下，最终慢慢变冷变硬。
一座海拔很高的火山，其顶部通常都呈现出极为亮丽的红色。若在沿海地区有座此类火山，那它不就是海员的灯塔吗？这岂不妙哉！
四
If the 20th century has been the American century； then there are plenty of people saying watch this space： the twentyfirst century will be different。 The distinguishing characteristic of the postcoldwar world is that there is only one superpower。 And there’s only one candidate on the horizon to challenge the US — China。
［A］Africa； I fear； is going to remain a disaster area ；simply because it does not figure on people’s mental maps。 Currently there is war raging in six countries around the Congo； yet there’s very little sense the international munity will do anything about it。 There is； though； some good news。 If you look back a year ago to Algeria； it was drowning in its own flood。 Now it seems to be back on the right track。
［B］Europe is already the largest trading block in the world； but while the euro could help it bee an economic giant； and even challenge the dollar； it looks likely to remain a political and military pygmy。 It’s worth remembering that while Europe spends 60 percent of what the USA does in defence； it has only 10 per cent of the Americans’ firepower。
［C］I do think arms control will be a big item on the agenda in future。 For many years the nonproliferation regime actually worked surprisingly well； but India and Pakistan going nuclear has been a great blow to the status quo。 And now there are new biological and chemical weapons—undreamedof horrors—not to mention the whole legacy of the cold war which hasn’t been cleaned up； such as Russian nuclear waste in the Arctic。
［D］The military muscleflexing we have seen from China over the last few years could be an indication of how things are likely to go； although it has to be said that to many people’s surprise the Chinese have been quite constructive over East Timor。 But I think we must assume that the main struggle in the 21st century will be with China； already the world’s largest nation。 Happily； the Chinese seem to have no global pretensions。 One can’t see them interfering in some fardistant conflict； and in both military and economic terms they are still light years behind America。
［E］The fundamental problem is that there are countries that are simply being left behind by the onward march of globalisation。 Global issues such as the environment and drugs—and perhaps even human rights — are going to e much more to the fore。 As the world shrinks； so we shall have an increasing sense of the need for an international humanitarian order。 Globalisation may be a good thing； but it has a dark underbelly。
［F］We must also assume the continued decline of Russia。 It shows how far things have gone （and how quickly） when what was once the second most powerful country in the world is being battered by Islamic rebels from the Caucasus。 Now we have a Russian state which simply cannot cope。
［G］In the Middle East； in a relatively short space of time； bubbling conflicts have moved closer to resolution。 The ArabIsraeli dispute has been reduced to its core essentials； while agreement between Syria and Israel remains the strategic prize for peace。 Iran is undergoing a slow transformation but the outstanding political issue here is Iraq and Saddam Hussein’s extraordinary survival。 The international munity remains bitterly divided about what to do。
答案及解析
1。 F。 通过粗略阅读全文内容，我们可以基本判断是在评价冷战后，除美国之外影响世界的各种不同的力量，从上一段对中国的介绍来看，“in both military and economic terms they are still light years behind America。”按照逻辑顺序来说接下来的自然应是另一个对世界影响很大的力量，可能的有俄罗斯和欧洲，而从对欧洲的叙述来看，它缺乏军事方面的优势并且是后起的力量，同时，俄罗斯虽然经济发展落后了，但它毕竟是冷战后对世界影响巨大的力量，从基本叙述思路来看，应选俄罗斯。
2。 B。在确立了第三段为对俄的叙述之后，根据当今世界力量的对比，接下来应是经济发展迅速，对世界影响越来越大的欧洲“the largest trading block in the world。” 这样我们基本可以看出全文叙述的一条线索，即根据政治经济军事实力的强弱和对世界的影响力来排序。
3。 G。在掌握了叙述线索之后，接下来自然是“对世界发展影响巨大的中东问题”，从这段中的最后一句“The international munity remains bitterly divided about what to do。”也可以看出这是一个重大问题。
4。 A。接下来是应讨论非洲问题，还是讨论军备问题，根据全文叙述线索来看应该是首先按照国家地区来编排，而且从叙述来看，对于非洲的战患“There’s very little sense the international munity will do anything about it ”。 因此这个问题对世界影响巨大，应位于“arms control”前面，由此可知此项为正确选项。
5。 C。从全文的结构框架来看，在讨论了中东和非洲的战患后，转入军备问题也是合理的，这也是影响世界发展的主要因素。
中心思想
本文主要讨论了在二十一世纪，什么才是影响人类社会发展的主要因素，在分别否定了美国一擎撑天，中国不愿称霸，俄罗斯与欧洲发展不平衡以及中东、非洲的战祸连连后，作者认为，在大力控制军备问题的同时，一定要着重关注全球化的进程问题，全球化是一把悬在人类头上的达摩克利斯之剑。
译文
如果20世纪是美国的世纪，会有很多人说：21世纪将会有所不同。冷战后的世界最鲜明的特点是只有一个超级大国而且只有一个国家有可能挑战美国，那就是中国。
尽管许多人对中国在远东地区的建设性作用感到惊奇，但从过去几年中国裁军情况我们可以看出事情的发展趋向。我们必须承认，21世纪最主要的斗争就是与中国这个世界上人口最多的国家的斗争。幸运的是，中国没有全球野心。而且中国的军事力量和经济实力都要落后美国许多年。
我们也必须承认俄罗斯的继续下滑。它说明自从俄罗斯遭受高加索伊斯兰教叛乱之后，曾经的世界第二号军事强国衰落如此之快。现在我们面临俄罗斯现状束手无策。
欧洲已经成为世界上最大的贸易区，尽管欧元可以使欧洲成为一个经济巨人，甚至可以挑战美元，但欧洲仍是政治和军事上的侏儒。我们清楚欧洲国防开支只有美国的60％，军事力量只有美国的10％。
在中东，相对短的一段时期内矛盾接近解决。阿以争端已经缩小到其核心问题，然而叙利亚和以色列的和平协议仍然遥遥无期。伊朗已经开始缓慢改革，但政治焦点仍然是伊拉克和萨达姆？侯赛因的政权，国际社会对此感到束手无策。
我认为非洲仍将是一个多灾地区，仅仅是因为它没有弄清楚人们的精神世界。刚果周边六个国家经常发生战乱，国际社会也无法解决这个问题。尽管如此，有时也会有好的消息，比如：阿尔及利亚一年前被洪水侵吞，现在已经回到正常轨道。
我认为军备控制是将来最大议程。虽然不扩散制度在很多年里都运行地很好，但印度和巴基斯坦的核竞赛却给了它致命一击。现在有新的难以想象的可怕的生化武器，更不用说冷战遗留下来的问题了，比如说俄罗斯在北极残留的核废料。
根本问题在于有很多国家没有跟上正在前进中的全球化。诸如环境、毒品甚至人权等全球问题越来越显得重要。世界正在变小，我们有更强烈的感觉需要国际人道主义秩序。全球化是一件好事，但它也是一把悬在人类头上的达摩克利斯之剑。
五
［A］Antarctica has ninetenths of all the world’s ice。 If all this ice melted； the level of the world’s oceans would rise 250 feet。 Most cities along the coast would be drowned。 In New York Harbor； water would almost cover the Statue of Liberty’s head。 But the ice in Antarctica does not melt。 The temperature stays well below freezing the year round in most places。 Antarctica is the coldest place on Earth。 The temperature there has been known to drop to more than 100 degrees below zero。
［B］If you flew in an airplane over the continent of Antarctica； you would look down on a great sheet of snow and ice。 The snow and ice slopes gently from a central plateau around the South Pole toward the sea。 Along the coasts of Antarctica； sharp mountains rise up from the snow。 Huge masses of ice called glaciers slide between the mountain ridges toward the sea。 At the sea’s edge； tremendous icebergs break off the glacier and float away。 They are often enormous in size。
［C］A number of birds live in Antarctica； and fly over the water and ice。 The Arctic tern has been called the longdistance champion of the world。 Each year it migrates between the northernmost islands of the Arctic （the region around the North Pole） and the shores of Antarctica —— a distance of about 11；000 miles。
［D］ Antarc
