cc.fireice-第30部分

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　〃I've　seen　some　pretty　destructive　beach　waves。〃
　〃So　have　I。　But　even　an　ordinary　wave　crashing　on　the　beach　only　has　a　short　life　and　a　speed　of　ten　to　twenty　miles　per　hour。　Your　tsunami　has　had　hundreds　of　miles　and　hours　to　build　up　its　energy。　The　deeper　the　water；　the　faster　the　wave。　That's　why　a　tsunami　can　hit　six　hundred　miles　per　hour　as　it　crosses　the　ocean；　even　though　ships　don't　feel　it　and　you　can't　see　it　from　the　air。　Let　me　give　you　an　example。　In　1960；　an　offshore　quake　near　Chile　sent　a　wave　across　the　Pacific。　The　wave　was　no　more　than　three　feet　high。　Twenty…two　hours　later；　when　the　wave　hit　the　coast　of　Japan；　it　was　twenty　feet　high　and　killed　two　hundred　people。　The　waved　bounced　around　the　Pacific　for　days；　causing　damage　wherever　it　touched。〃
　〃If　it's　only　a　ripple　in　the　ocean；　how'd　you　figure　this　was　going　to　be　a　big　one？〃
　〃I　was　lobstering　out　on　the　ledge　where　it's　paratively　shallow。　The　wave　slowed　down　when　it　hit　the　shallows　and　started　to　peak。　It　was　moving　slower；　but　all　the　energy　it　built　up　was　still　there。　That　energy　has　to　go　somewhere。　When　the　wave　approaches　shore；　the　mousy　little　sea　grows　up　into　a　monster。　Sometimes　it　builds　up　into　a　great　towering　wave。　It　might　be　a　bunch　of　series　of　breaking　waves；　or　a　bore；　like　a　bunch　of　steps　with　a　steep　breaking　front。　It　might　suck　out　the　water　and　spit　it　back　out。〃
　〃That's　what　happened　with　us。　Like　someone　pulled　the　plug　out　of　the　harbor。〃
　
　Jenkins　nodded。　〃Tsunamis　are　fascinating　and　very　adaptive　critters。　Reefs；　bays；　entrances　to　rivers；　can　affect　the　damage；　the　slope　of　the　beach。　The　waves　can　crest　to　one　hundred　feet　or　more；　but　mostly　they　just　surge。　All　depends　on　what's　in　the　way。　They　can　wrap　around　a　headland　and　cause　damage　on　the　opposite　side　of　an　island。　When　they　get　squeezed；　they　bee　really　dangerous；　because　you've　got　all　that　intensity　built　up　in　a　small　space。〃　He　pointed　out　the　window　at　a　river　that　fed　into　the　harbor。　The　high　banks　were　littered　with　debris。　〃They　can　even　go　up　rivers；　as　they　did　here。〃
　〃Good　thing　the　condos　Jack　Schrager　built　on　the　banks　of　the　river　weren't　occupied；　or　there　would　be　a　lot　of　dead　people　floating　around　in　that　harbor　instead　of　scraps　of　wood。　Damned　lucky　you　saw　those　waves　and　recognized　their　threat。〃
　〃More　than　lucky。〃　Jenkins　clicked　his　puter　mouse　and　pulled　up　a　map　of　the　world　with　arrows　pointing　to　various　countries。　〃In　the　decade　starting　in　1990；　tsunamis　killed　more　than　four　hundred　people　and　caused　billions　of　dollars　in　damage。〃　He　tapped　the　screen。　〃This　one　in　Papua　New　Guinea　was　a　real　horror。　The　wave　was　forty…　five　feet　tall　when　it　hit　along　nineteen　miles　of　coast。　A　few　minutes　later；　there　were　more　than　two　hundred　people　dead。〃
　
　He　switched　over　to　a　simulation。　〃This　is　an　animation　of　a　quake…generated　wave　attacking　a　Japanese　village　back　in　1923。　You　see　a　lot　of　big　waves　in　the　Pacific。　It's　surrounded　by　the　'rim　of　fire；'　all　those　tectonic　plates　that　shift　every　so　often。〃
　〃Hate　to　be　so　parochial；　but　we're　talking　the　Atlantic；　not　the　Pacific；　and　the　coast　of　Maine；　not　Japan。　I've　lived　here　all　my　life　and　I've　yet　to　hear　about　a　quake。〃
　〃You've　probably　had　more　minor　tremors　than　you　know　of；　but　I　agree；　that's　why　I　started　thinking　about　other　causes。　Tsunamis　caused　by　landslides　are　less　mon。　Then　you've　got　volcanic　eruptions　and　large　meteorites。〃
　〃Not　too　many　volcanoes　around　here　that　I　know　of。〃　〃Be　grateful。　The　Krakatoa　volcano　created　waves　one　hundred　feet　high　and　killed　thousands　back　in　1883。　If　an　asteroid　five　miles　across　landed　in　the　mid…Atlantic；　it　would　create　a　wave　high　enough　to　swamp　the　upper　east　coast　of　the　U。S。　New　York　would　be　wiped　off　the　map。〃
　〃That　leaves　landslide。〃
　〃It's　what　we　call　a　slump。　Here　…　let　me　show　you。〃　Jenkins　pulled　up　another　map　on　the　monitor。　〃This　is　Izmit　Bay　in　Turkey。　They　had　a　slump…generated　wave　there　that　caused　extensive　damage。〃
　〃What　caused　the　slump？〃
　〃An　earthquake。〃　Jenkins　chuckled。　〃I　know；　it's　like　asking　which　came　first；　the　chicken　or　the　egg？　In　general；　a　slump　is　caused　by　a　quake。　That's　the　problem　with　our　Rocky　Point　ripple。　There　was　a　slump；　but　no　quake。〃
　〃Are　you　sure？〃
　〃Absolutely。　I've　talked　to　the　folks　at　the　Weston　Observatory　in　Massachusetts。　They　keep　tabs　on　all　seismic　disturbances　in　the　area。　They　picked　up　some　rumbles　that　indicated　a　slump；　but　no　quake　preceding　it；　as　I'd　expect。　I　heard　a　tremendous　underwater　boom　shortly　before　I　saw　things　happening。　There　was　apparently　a　movement　of　ocean　bottom　east　of　Maine；　but　without　the　normal　crash　of　tectonic　plates。　I've　talked　to　tsunami　experts　all　around　the　country。　Nobody　has　heard　of　such　a　thing。〃
　〃Then　we're　stumped。〃
　〃Not　exactly。〃　Jenkins　brought　the　wave　profile　back　onto　the　puter　screen。　〃I've　put　together　a　simulation　of　our　wave。　It's　pretty　crude。　Even　with　the　best　information；　wave　calculations　can　be　plicated。　You've　got　to　factor　in　stuff　like　velocity；　wave　height　and　destructive　force。　Then　you've　got　all　the　coastal　features　that　cause　a　wave　to　deflect　or　diffract。　You've　got　to　calculate　the　effects　of　backwash　from　following　waves。〃
　〃Sounds　impossible。〃
　〃It　nearly　is。　But　not　totally。　A　few　years　ago；　scientists　used　puter…based　mathematical　modeling　techniques　to　solve　the　demise　of　the　civilization　on　Crete。　Look；　this　is　a　map　chart　of　the　Maine　coast。　That's　the　harbor。　The　hardest　hit　was　several　miles　from　here；　where　some　fishermen　saw　waves　breaking　over　Newb's　Rocks。〃
　
　The　chief　whistled。　〃Those　cliffs　must　be　fifty　feet　high。〃　Jenkins　nodded　and　indicated　the　chart　on　the　screen。　An　arrow　pointed　toward　the　land。　〃The　main　wave　force　was　just　to　the　north　of　here；　so　even　with　my　warning；　things　could　have　been　worse　here　at　the　cove。　I　don't　even　know　if　this　house　would　have　been　safe。〃
　
　The　chief　went　pale。　〃That　would　have　been　the　whole　town。〃
　
　Jenkins　leaned　forward　and　peered　at　the　puter。　〃This　is　amazing。　Look　at　how　straight　it　came　in。　Almost　like　a　child　creating　a　wave　in　a　bathtub。〃
　
　The　chief　tapped　the　screen。　〃Is　this　where　it　started？〃
　〃Yeah。　It's　only　an　estimate　built　on　circumstantial　evidence。〃
　〃I　took　a　course　in　accident　reconstruction。　It's　amazing　what　you　can　tell　about　speed　and　impact　from　skid　marks　and　broken　headlights。〃
　〃I'm　pretty　confident　that　it　originated　about　a　hundred　and　fifty　miles　to　the　east。〃
　〃What　are　you　going　to　do　now？〃　Jenkins's　shoulders　ached　from　tension。　〃First　I'm　going　to　brew　up　some　tea。　Then　we're　going　to　have　us　a　slam…bang　game　of　chess。〃
　
　…13…
　THE　BLACK　SEA
　
　As　THE　FISHING　boat　Turgut　approached　the　Russian　coast；　Austin　swept　the　deserted　shoreline　through　the　lenses　of　his　Fujinon　gyro…stabilized　binoculars；　alert　to　any　feature　out　of　sync　with　its　surroundings。　The　barren　coast　seemed　peaceful。　Wind　and　tide　had　scrubbed　the　sand　clean　of　footprints。　Green　tufts　of　new　growth　sprouted　in　the　fire…blackened　patches　of　dune　grass。　It　was　hard　to　imagine　the　deadly　game　he　had　played　over　this　tranquil　setting　only　days　before。
　
　The　beach　was　about　a　mile　wide；　flanked　by　two　headlands　like　the　arms　of　a　sofa。　Except　for　the　cliff　sculpted　by　wind　and　sea　into　the　sharp　profile　of　an　old　man；　the　shoreline　was　unremarkable。　A　misty　curtain　hung　over　the　dunes。　Austin　remembered　that　the　land　hidden　behind　the　grassy　ridge　sloped　down　to　the　abandoned　buildings；　then　flattened　out　in　a　scraggly　plain　edged　by　woods；　gradually　rising　to　low　rolling　hills。
　
　A　smell　like　burning　rope　assaulted　Austin's　nostrils。　Wrinkling　his　nose；　he　lowered　the　Stabiscope　and　turned　to　see　Captain　Kemal。　The　captain　removed　the　twisted　black　cigar　from　between　his　tobacco…stained　teeth　and　jabbed　it　toward　the　shore。
　
　〃How　does　it　look；　Mr。　Austin？〃
　〃As　quiet　as　a　grave；　Captain。〃
　〃I　don't　think　I　like　it　quiet　like　that。〃　He　exhaled　twin　streams　of　smoke　through　his　crooked　nose。　〃When　I　smuggled；　I　never　liked　a　beach　that　was　calm　like　this。　Not　even　birds　flying。　You　sure　you　want　to　go　there　now？〃