cc.fireice-第63部分

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　〃Aha！　A　fisherman；〃　Reed　said。　〃I　knew　it。〃
　
　Jenkins　smiled；　then　resumed。　〃You　probably　read　about　the　tsunami　that　hit　there　not　too　long　ago。〃
　〃Yes；　it　was　an　awful　tragedy；〃　Reed　said。
　
　〃It　could　have　been　worse。〃　Jenkins　explained　his　role　in　warning　the　town。
　
　〃Lucky　you　were　there；〃　Yaeger　said。　〃Something　puzzles　me；　though。　First　time　I've　heard　of　something　like　that　happening。　New　England　isn't　at　the　edge　of　a　major　fault　like　Japan　or　California。〃
　〃The　only　parable　precedent　I　found　was　the　big　wave　caused　by　the　Grand　Banks　earthquake　in　1929。　The　quake's　epicenter　was　under　the　ocean　on　the　continental　slope　south　of　Newfoundland　and　east　of　Nova　Scotia。　The　tremor　was　felt　in　Canada　and　New　England；　but　the　source　was　two　hundred　and　fifty　miles　from　the　nearest　land；　so　damage　was　negligible。　Roads　were　blocked　by　landslides；　chimneys　broken　and　dishes　rattled。　Otherwise；　the　shock　had　little　impact。　The　biggest　effect　was　on　the　sea。〃
　〃In　what　way？〃　Reed　said。
　
　〃There　were　two　ships　near　the　epicenter。　The　vibrations　were　so　violent　they　thought　they'd　lost　a　propeller　or　hit　an　uncharted　wreck　or　sandbar。　The　quake　created　a　great　wave　that　struck　the　south　coast　of　Newfoundland　three　hours　later；　running　up　into　rivers　and　inlets　in　the　little　fishing　villages　along　sixty　miles　of　coastline。　The　worst　damage　was　at　a　wedge…shaped　bay　on　the　Burin　Peninsula。　The　tsunami　rose　to　thirty　feet　at　the　apex　of　the　bay；　damaged　docks　and　buildings　and　killed　more　than　twenty…five　people。〃
　〃Very　similar　to　what　happened　at　Rocky　Point。〃
　〃Almost　a　mirror　image。　The　fatality　and　injury　rate　was　lower　in　my　town；　thank　goodness。　There　was　another　important　similarity。　Both　waves　seem　to　have　been　caused　by　huge　underwater　slides。　There　was　no　doubt　that　an　earthquake　caused　the　Grand　Banks　disaster。　The　oceanic　cables　were　broken　in　dozens　of　places。〃　He　paused。　〃Here's　where　they　were　different：　The　Rocky　Point　slide　seems　to　have　been　caused　without　a　quake。〃
　〃Interesting。　Were　there　any　seismic　readings？〃
　〃I　checked　with　the　Weston　Observatory　outside　of　Boston。　The　Grand　Banks　quake　had　a　magnitude　of　7。2。　So　we　know　something　of　that　magnitude　will　cause　a　tsunami。　The　Rocky　Point　readings　were　more　muddled。〃　He　paused。　〃There　was　a　shock；　but　it　didn't　fit　the　classic　pattern　for　a　quake。〃
　

　〃Let　me　see　if　I'm　clear　on　this。　Are　you　really　saying　the　Rocky　Point　slump　was　not　from　an　earthquake？〃
　〃I　think　that　can　be　fairly　well　established。　What　I　can't　say　is　what　actually　caused　the　landslide。〃　Yaeger　looked　over　the　tops　of　his　granny　glasses。　〃Which　came　first；　the　chicken　or　the　egg？〃
　〃Something　like　that。　I　had　read　about　the　methane…　hydrate　deposits　found　off　the　continental　slope　and　wondered　if　instability　in　those　pockets　of　gas　could　have　caused　the　slump。〃
　〃It's　certainly　possible；〃　Reed　said。　〃There　are　huge　pockets　of　the　stuff　off　both　coasts。　We've　found　major　deposits　off　of　Oregon　and　New　Jersey；　for　instance。　You've　heard　of　the　Blake　Ridge？〃
　〃Sure。　It's　an　undersea　promontory　a　couple　of　hundred　miles　southeast　of　the　U。S。〃
　〃Off　the　North　Carolina　coast；　to　be　exact。　The　ridge　is　loaded　with　methane　hydrate。　Some　people　think　the　ridge　is　a　'pressure　cooker。'　Surveys　have　found　craters　pockmarking　the　ocean　floor　where　the　stuff　has　melted　and　seeped　out；　releasing　methane　gas。〃
　
　Jenkins　scratched　his　head。　〃I'm　sorry　to　say　I　don't　know　a　lot　about　hydrates。　I　try　to　keep　up　through　the　professional　journals　since　leaving　the　university；　but　what　with　the　lobstering　and　so　on；　I　never　seem　to　have　enough　time。〃
　〃It's　a　paratively　new　area。　You're　familiar　with　chemical　position　of　hydrate？〃
　〃It's　made　up　of　natural　gas　molecules　trapped　in　ice。〃
　〃That's　right。　Someone　dubbed　it　'fire　ice。'　It　was　discovered　in　the　nineteenth　century；　but　our　knowledge　has　been　pretty　sketchy。　The　first　natural　deposits　were　under　the　permafrost　in　Siberia　and　North　America　…they　called　it　marsh　gas　…　then　in　the　1970s；　a　couple　of　scientists　from　Columbia　University　found　pockets　under　the　seafloor　when　they　were　doing　seismological　studies　at　the　Blake　Ridge。　In　the　1980s；　the　Woods　Hole　submersible　Alvin　found　stone　undersea　chimneys　formed　by　escaping　methane。　I　was　on　the　first　big　survey　back　in　the　mid…1990s。　That's　when　we　discovered　the　deposits　in　the　Blake　Ridge。　They're　only　a　fraction　of　what's　out　there。　The　potential　is　vast。〃
　〃Where　are　the　major　deposits？〃
　〃Mostly　along　the　lower　slopes　of　the　world's　continental　shelves；　where　the　seabed　drops　from　four　hundred　feet　or　so　into　the　abyss　several　miles　deep。　There　are　major　pockets　off　both　U。S。　coasts。　As　I　said；　you　can　find　them　in　Costa　Rica；　Japan；　India；　and　under　the　arctic　permafrost。　The　sheer　size　of　the　deposits　is　astounding。　The　most　recent　estimates　are　ten　thousand　gigatons。　That's　double　the　total　amount　of　all　known　reserves　of　coal；　oil　and　natural　gas。〃
　
　Jenkins　let　out　a　low　whistle。　〃Waiting　there　to　be　tapped　when　we　suck　our　petroleum　reserves　dry。〃
　〃I　wish　it　were　so　easy；〃　Reed　said　with　a　sigh。　〃A　few　technical　problems　have　to　be　ironed　out　before　extraction　is　practical。〃
　〃Is　it　dangerous　to　drill？〃
　
　〃The　first　time　a　ship　drilled　into　a　pocket　was　in　1970。　Nothing　happened；　but　drillers　were　afraid　for　years　afterward　that　they'd　get　blown　out　of　the　water。　Eventually；　a　few　experimental　bores　showed　that　research　drilling　was　safe。　Getting　hydrates　to　the　surface　to　heat　your　home　or　run　your　SUV　is　another　question。　The　environment　is　extremely　hostile　in　the　deep　water　where　hydrates　are　found；　and　the　stuff　simply　fizzes　when　we　bring　it　up。　The　deposits　may　be　another　few　hundred　feet　below　the　seafloor。〃
　〃That　sounds　like　a　tough　neighborhood　for　rigs　to　operate　in。〃
　〃Absolutely。　A　number　of　countries　and　panies　are　working　on　the　problem；　though。　One　method　is　pumping　steam　or　water　down　the　drill　hole。　This　melts　the　hydrate　and　releases　methane。　Then　you　pump　the　methane　to　the　surface　of　the　seafloor　through　another　drill　hole。　Next　es　the　question　of　what　you　do　with　it。　When　you　remove　the　hydrate；　the　seafloor　destabilizes。〃
　〃There　goes　your　expensive　pipeline。〃
　
　〃A　good　possibility。　Which　is　why　engineers　have　e　up　with　a　scheme　to　put　a　production　facility　on　the　seafloor。　You　pump　the　hydrate　out　and　bine　it　with　water。　The　mix　goes　into　big　tanks　shaped　like　dirigibles。　Submarines　would　tow　them　to　the　shallows；　where　the　hydrates　would　be　safely　broken　down　into　fuel　and　water。〃
　〃With　any　of　those　methods；　it　sounds　like　mining　hydrates　is　going　to　be　like　walking　on　eggshells。〃
　〃Even　more　difficult。　Now　back　to　your　original　question。〃
　〃About　hydrates　as　a　source　of　earthquakes　and　big　waves。〃
　〃It's　highly　possible。　There　is　evidence　that　the　natural　melting　has　destabilized　seafloor　slopes。　They've　found　massive　submarine　landslides　off　the　U。S。　East　Coast；　Alaska　and　other　countries。　The　Russians　found　unstable　hydrate　fields　off　Norway。　They　think　one　of　the　biggest　releases　ever　recorded　caused　the　Storrega　submarine　landslide：　Eight　thousand　years　ago；　more　than　a　thousand　cubic　miles　of　sediments　slid　for　miles　down　the　slope　of　the　Norwegian　continental　slope。〃
　〃I'　m　acquainted　with　Storrega；〃　Jenkins　said。　〃Then　you'd　know　that　the　huge　mud　slide　caused　unimaginable　tsunamis。　The　Grand　Banks　and　Rocky　Point　would　have　been　bathtub　waves　by　parison。〃
　
　Jenkins　nodded。　〃What　about　man…made　landslides。　Possible？〃
　〃I'd　say　they're　plausible；　sure。　A　drilling　platform　inadvertently　cause　a　deposit　to　collapse；　triggering　a　landslide。〃
　
　Jenkins　held　his　breath；　then　released　it。　〃Inadvertently；　yes。　But　could　something　like　that　be　triggered　deliberately？〃
　
　The　tone　grabbed　their　attention。　Reed　said；　〃What　are　you　saying；　Dr。　Jenkins？〃
　
　Jenkins　squirmed　in　his　chair。　〃It's　been　driving　me　crazy。　My　gut　instinct　has　been　in　conflict　with　my　scientific　training；　which　says　gather　all　the　evidence　before　ing　to　a　conclusion；　especially　one　as　wild　as　this。〃
　
　Reed　scratched　his　chin。　〃Maybe；　but　as　a　scientist；　I'm　like　you　…　I　can't　mak