动物精神-第9部分

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e　are　talking　again　of　his　1936　book　The　General　Theory　of　Employment；　Interest　and　Money；　which　was　written　during　the　Great　Depression。　This　era；　like　the　present；　saw　many　calls　to　end　capitalism　as　we　know　it。　The　1930s　have　been　called　the　heyday　of　munism　in　western　countries。　Keynes’s　middle　way　would　avoid　the　unemployment　and　the　panics　and　manias　of　capitalism。　But　it　would　also　avoid　the　economic　and　political　controls　of　munism。　The　General　Theory　became　the　most　important　economics　book　of　the　20th　century　because　of　its　sensible　balanced　message。In　times　of　high　unemployment；　creditworthy　governments　should　expand　demand　by　deficit　spending。　Then；　in　times　of　low　unemployment；　governments　should　pay　down　the　resultant　debt。　With　that　seemingly　minor　change　in　procedures；　a　capitalist　system　can　be　stable。　There　is　no　need　for　radical　surgery　on　capitalism。Adherents　to　Keynes’s　message　were　so　eager　to　get　this　simple　policy　implemented；　on　both　sides　of　the　Atlantic；　that　they　failed　to　notice　–　or　perhaps　they　intentionally　disregarded　–　that　the　General　Theory　also　had　a　deeper；　more　fundamental　message　about　how　capitalism　worked；　if　only　briefly　spelled　out。　It　explained　why　capitalist　economies；　left　to　their　own　devices；　without　the　balancing　of　governments；　were　essentially　unstable。　And　it　explained　why；　for　capitalist　economies　to　work　well；　the　government　should　serve　as　a　counterbalance。The　key　to　this　insight　was　the　role　Keynes　gave　to　people’s　psychological　motivations。　These　are　usually　ignored　by　macroeconomists。　Keynes　called　them　animal　spirits；　and　he　thought　they　were　especially　important　in　determining　people’s　willingness　to　take　risks。　Businessmen’s　calculations；　he　said；　were　precarious：　“Our　basis　of　knowledge　for　estimating　the　yield　10　years　hence　of　a　railway；　a　copper　mine；　a　textile　factory；　the　goodwill　of　a　patent　medicine；　an　Atlantic　liner；　a　building　in　the　City　of　London　amounts　to　little　and　sometimes　to　nothing。”　Despite　this；　people　somehow　make　decisions　and　act。　This　“can　only　be　taken　as　a　result　of　animal　spirits”。　There　is　“a　spontaneous　urge　to　action”。There　are　times　when　people　are　especially　adventuresome　–　indeed；　too　much　so。　Their　adventures　are　supported　in　these　times　by　a　blithe　faith　in　the　future；　and　trust　in　economic　institutions。　These　are　the　upswing　of　the　business　cycle。　But　then　the　animal　spirits　also　veer　in　the　other　direction；　and　then　people　are　too　wary。George　Akerlof　and　I；　in　our　book　Animal　Spirits　（Princeton　2009）；　expand　on　Keynes’s　concept　and　tie　it　in　to　modern　literature　on　behavioural　economics　and　psychology。　Much　more　clarity　about　the　psychological　underpinnings　of　animal　spirits　is　possible　today。For　example；　social　psychologists；　notably　Roger　Schank　and　Robert　Abelson；　have　shown　how　much　stories　and　storytelling；　especially　human…interest　stories；　motivate　much　of　human　behaviour。　These　stories　can　count　for　much　more　than　abstract　calculation。　People’s　economic　moods　are　largely　based　on　the　stories　that　people　tell　themselves　and　tell　each　other　that　are　related　to　the　economy。We　have　seen　these　stories　e　and　go　in　rapid　succession　in　recent　years。　We　first　had　the　dot　bubble　and　the　envy…producing　stories　of　young　millionaires。　It　burst　in　2000；　but　was　soon　replaced　with　another　bubble；　involving　smart　“flippers”　of　properties。This　mania　was　the　product　not　only　of　a　story　about　people　but　also　a　story　about　how　the　economy　worked。　It　was　part　of　a　story　that　all　investments　in　securitised　mortgages　were　safe　because　those　smart　people　were　buying　them。　Those　enviable　people　who　are　buying　these　assets　must　be　checking　on　them；　therefore　we　do　not　need　to。　We　need　only　run　alongside　them。What　allowed　this　mania　and　these　stories　to　persist　as　long　as　they　did？　To　a　remarkable　extent　we　have　got　into　the　current　economic　and　financial　crisis　because　of　a　wrong　economic　theory　–　an　economic　theory　that　itself　denied　the　role　of　the　animal　spirits　in　getting　us　into　manias　and　panics。According　to　the　standard　“classical”　theory；　which　goes　back　to　Adam　Smith　with　his　Wealth　of　Nations　in　1776；　the　economy　is　essentially　stable。　If　people　rationally　pursue　their　own　economic　interests　in　free　markets　they　will　exhaust　all　mutually　beneficial　opportunities　to　produce　goods　and　exchange　with　one　another。　Such　exhaustion　of　opportunities　for　mutually　beneficial　trade　results　in　full　employment。　By　this　theory　it　could　not　be　otherwise。Of　course；　some　workers　will　be　unemployed。　But　they　will　be　unable　to　find　work　only　because　they　are　in　a　temporary　search　for　a　job　or　because　they　insist　on　pay　that　is　unreasonably　high。　Such　unemployment　is　viewed　as　voluntary；　and　evokes　no　sympathy。Classical　theory　also　tells　us　that　financial　markets　will　also　be　stable。　People　will　only　make　trades　that　they　consider　to　benefit　themselves。　When　entering　financial　markets　–　buying　stocks　or　bonds　or　taking　out　a　mortgage　or　even　very　plex　securities　–　they　will　do　due　diligence　in　seeing　that　what　they　are　buying　is　worth　what　they　or　paying；　or　what　they　are　selling。What　this　theory　neglects　is　that　there　are　times　when　people　are　too　trusting。　And　it　also　fails　to　take　into　account　that　if　it　can　do　so　profitably；　capitalism　will　produce　not　only　what　people　really　want；　but　also　what　they　think　they　want。　It　can　produce　the　medicine　people　want　to　cure　their　ills。　That　is　what　people　really　want。　But　if　it　can　do　so　profitably；　it　will　also　produce　what　people　mistakenly　want。It　will　produce　snake　oil。　Not　only　that：　it　may　also　produce　the　want　for　the　snake　oil　itself。　That　is　a　downside　to　capitalism。　Standard　economic　theory　failed　to　take　into　account　that　buyers　and　sellers　of　assets　might　not　be　taking　due　diligence；　and　the　marketplace　was　not　selling　them　insurance　against　risk　in　the　plex　securities　that　they　were　buying；　but　was；　instead；　selling　them　the　financial　equivalent　of　snake　oil。There　is　a　broader　moral　to　all　this　–　about　the　nature　of　capitalism。　On　the　one　hand；　we　want　to　take　advantage　of　the　wisdom　of　Adam　Smith。　For　the　most　part；　the　products　produced　by　capitalism　are　what　we　really　want；　produced　at　a　price　that　we　are　willing　and　able　to　pay。　On　the　other　hand；　when　confidence　is　high；　and　since　financial　assets　are　hard　to　evaluate　by　those　who　are　buying　them；　people　will　and　do　buy　snake　oil。　And　when　that　is　discovered；　as　it　invariably　must　be；　the　confidence　disappears　and　the　economy　goes　sour。It　is　the　role　of　the　government　at　two　levels　to　see　that　these　events　do　not　occur。　First；　it　has　a　duty　to　regulate　asset　markets　so　that　people　are　not　falsely　lured　into　buying　snake…oil　assets。　Such　standards　for　our　financial　assets　make　as　much　mon　sense　as　the　standards　for　the　food　we　eat；　or　the　purchase　medicine　we　get　from　the　pharmacy。　But　we　do　not　want　to　throw　out　the　good　parts　of　capitalism　with　the　bad。　To　take　advantage　of　the　good　parts　of　capitalism；　when　fluctuations　occur　it　is　the　role　of　the　government　to　see　that　those　who　can　and　want　to　produce　what　others　want　to　buy　can　do　so。　It　is　the　role　of　the　government；　through　its　counterbalancing　fiscal　and　monetary　policy；　to　maintain　full　employment。The　principles　behind　such　an　economy　are　not　the　principles　behind　a　socialist　economy。　The　government　insofar　as　possible　is　only　creating　the　macroeconomic　conditions　that　will　allow　the　economy　to　function　well。That　is　the　role　of　government。　Its　role　is　to　ensure　a　“wise　laisser　faire”。　This　is　not　the　free…for…all　capitalism　that　has　been　remended　by　the　current　economic　theory；　and　seems　to　have　been　accepted　as　gospel　by　economic　planners；　and　also　many　economists；　since　the　Thatcher　and　Reagan　governments。　But　it　also　is　a　significant　middle　way　between　those　who　see　the　economic　disasters　and　unemployment　of　unfettered　capitalism；　on　the　one　hand；　and　those　who　believe　that　the　government　should　play　no　role　at　all。The　idea　that　unfettered；　unregulated　capitalism　would　invariably　produce　the　good　outes　was　a　wrong　economic　theory　regarding　how　capitalist　societies　behave　and　what　causes　their　crises。　That　wrong　economic　theory　fails　to　take　account　of　how　the　anim