tc.redstormrising-第5部分

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　region　cannot　be　accurately　predicted；　rades。〃
The　Defense　Minister　nodded　again。　〃So；　what　effect　will　this　have　on　oil　production？〃　Half　the　men　at　the　table　leaned　forward　to　hear　Sergetov's　answer：
〃rades；　we　have　lost　thirty…four　percent　of　our　total　crude　oil　production　for　a　period　of　at　least　one　year；　possibly　as　many　as　three。〃　Sergetov　looked　up　from　his　notes　to　see　the　impassive　faces　cringe　as　though　from　a　slap。　〃It　will　be　necessary　to　redrill　every　production　well　and　finally　reconstruct　the　pipelines　from　the　fields　to　the　refinery　and　elsewhere。　The　concurrent　loss　of　the　refinery　is　serious；　but　not　an　immediate　concern　since　the　refinery　can　be　rebuilt；　and　in　any　case　represents　less　than　a　seventh　of　our　total　refining　capacity。　The　major　injury　to　our　economy　will　e　from　the　loss　of　our　crude　oil　production。
〃In　real　terms；　due　to　the　chemical　makeup　of　the　Nizhnevartovsk　oil；　the　net　total　production　loss　understates　the　actual　impact　on　our　economy。　Siberian　oil　is　'light；　sweet'　crude；　which　means　that　it　contains　a　disproportionately　large　amount　of　the　most　valuable　fractions…those　which　we　use　to　make　gasoline；　kerosene；　and　diesel　fuel；　for　example。　The　net　loss　in　these　particular　areas　is　forty…four　percent　of　our　gasoline　production；　forty…eight　percent　of　kerosene；　and　fifty　percent　of　diesel。　These　figures　are　rough　calculations　I　made　on　the　flight　back；　but　they　should　be　accurate　to　within　two　percent。　My　staff　will　have　more　precise　figures　ready　in　a　day　or　so。〃
〃Half？〃　the　General　Secretary　asked　quietly。
〃Correct；　rade；〃　Sergetov　responded。
〃And　how　long　to　restore　production？〃
〃rade　General　Secretary；　if　we　bring　in　every　drilling　rig　and　operate　them　around　the　clock；　my　rough　estimate　is　that　we　can　begin　to　restore　production　in　twelve　months。　Clearing　the　site　of　wreckage　will　take　at　least　three　months；　and　another　three　will　be　needed　to　relocate　our　equipment　and　mence　drilling　operations。　Since　we　have　exact　information　for　well　locations　and　depths；　the　usual　element　of　uncertainty　is　not　part　of　the　equation。　Within　a　year…that　is；　six　months　after　we　mence　the　redrilling…we　will　begin　to　bring　the　production　wells　back　on　stream；　and　full　restoration　of　the　wells　will　be　achieved　within　two　more　years。　While　all　this　is　going　on；　we　will　need　to　replace　the　EOR　equipment　also…〃
〃And　what　might　that　be？〃　Defense　asked。
〃Enhanced　Oil　Recovery　systems；　rade　Minister。　Had　these　been　relatively　new　wells；　pressurized　from　underground　gas；　the　fires　might　have　lasted　for　weeks。　As　you　know；　rades；　these　are　wells　from　which　a　good　deal　of　oil　has　already　been　extracted。　To　enhance　production　we　have　been　pumping　water　into　the　wells；　which　has　the　effect　of　forcing　more　oil　out。　It　may　also　have　had　the　effect　of　damaging　the　oil　bearing　strata。　This　is　something　our　geologists　are　even　now　attempting　to　evaluate。　As　it　was；　when　power　was　lost；　the　force　driving　the　oil　from　the　ground　was　removed；　and　the　fires　in　the　production　fields　rapidly　began　to　run　out　of　fuel。　They　were　for　the　most　part　dying　out　when　my　flight　left　for　Moscow。〃
〃So　even　three　years　from　now　production　may　not　be　pletely　restored？〃　the　Minister　of　the　Interior　asked。
〃Correct；　rade　Minister。　There　is　simply　no　scientific　basis　for　making　an　estimate　of　total　production。　The　situation　we　have　here　has　never　happened　before；　either　in　the　West　or　the　East。　We　can　drill　some　test　wells　in　the　next　two　or　three　months　that　will　give　us　some　indications。　The　staff　engineers　I　left　behind　are　making　arrangements　to　begin　the　process　as　quickly　as　possible　with　equipment　already　at　the　site。〃
〃Very　well；〃　the　General　Secretary　nodded。　〃The　next　question　is　how　long　the　country　can　operate　on　this　basis。〃
Sergetov　went　back　to　his　notes。　〃rades；　there　is　no　denying　that　this　is　a　disaster　of　unprecedented　scale　for　our　economy。　The　winter　has　drawn　down　our　heavy　oil　inventories　more　than　usual。　Certain　energy　expenditures　must　remain　relatively　intact。　Electrical　power　generation　last　year；　for　example；　accounted　for　thirty…eight　percent　of　our　oil　products；　far　more　than　planned；　due　to　past　disappointments　in　coal　and　gas　production；　which　we　had　expected　to　reduce　oil　demand。　The　coal　industry　will　require　at　least　five　years　to　restore　due　to　failures　in　modernization。　And　gas　drilling　operations　are　currently　slowed　by　environmental　conditions。　For　technical　reasons　it　is　extremely　hard　to　operate　such　equipment　in　extreme　cold　weather…〃
〃So　make　those　lazy　bastards　on　the　drilling　crews　work　harder！〃　suggested　the　chief　of　the　Moscow　Party。
〃It　is　not　the　workers；　rade。〃　Sergetov　sighed。　〃It　is　the　machines。　Cold　temperature　affects　metal　more　than　men。　Tools　and　equipment　break　simply　because　they　are　brittle　with　cold。　Weather　conditions　make　resupply　of　spare　parts　to　the　camps　more　difficult。　Marxism…Leninism　cannot　dictate　the　weather。〃
〃How　difficult　would　it　be　to　conceal　the　drilling　operations？〃　Defense　asked。
Sergetov　was　surprised。　〃Difficult？　No；　rade　Minister；　impossible。　How　can　one　conceal　several　hundred　drilling　rigs；　each　twenty　to　forty　meters　high？　One　might　as　easily　attempt　to　conceal　Plesetsk's　missile　launch　plexes。〃　Sergetov　noticed　for　the　first　time　the　glances　being　exchanged　by　Defense　and　the　General　Secretary。
〃Then　we　must　reduce　the　consumption　of　oil　by　the　electrical　industry；〃　the　General　Secretary　pronounced。
〃rades；　allow　me　to　give　you　some　rough　figures　on　the　way　in　which　we　consume　our　oil　products。　Please　understand　that　I　am　going　from　memory；　since　the　annual　departmental　report　is　in　the　process　of　formulation　at　this　time。
〃Last　year　we　produced　589　million　tons　of　crude　oil。　This　fell　short　of　planned　production　by　thirty…two　million　tons；　and　the　amount　actually　produced　was　only　possible　due　to　the　artificial　measures　that　I　have　already　discussed。　Roughly　half　of　that　production　was　semirefined　into　mazut；　or　heavy　fuel　oil；　for　use　in　electrical　power　plants；　factory　boilers；　and　the　like。　Most　of　this　oil　simply　cannot　be　used　otherwise；　since　we　have　only　three…excuse　me；　now　only　two…refineries　with　the　sophisticated　catalytic　cracking　chambers　needed　to　refine　heavy　oil　into　light　distillate　products。
〃The　fuels　we　produce　serve　our　economy　in　many　ways。　As　we　have　already　seen；　thirty…eight　percent　goes　for　electrical　and　other　forms　of　power　generation；　and　fortunately　much　of　this　is　mazut。　Of　the　lighter　fuels　…　diesel；　gasoline；　and　kerosene…　agricultural　production　and　the　food　industries；　transportation　of　goods　and　modities；　public　consumption　and　passenger　transportation；　and　finally　military　uses；　these　alone　absorbed　more　than　half　of　last　year's　production。　In　other　words；　rades；　with　the　loss　of　the　Nizhnevartovsk　field　the　end　users　I　just　mentioned　account　for　more　than　we　are　able　to　produce；　leaving　nothing　at　all　for　metallurgy；　heavy　machinery；　chemical；　and　construction　uses；　not　to　mention　what　we　customarily　export　to　our　fraternal　socialist　allies　in　Eastern　Europe　and　throughout　the　world。
〃To　answer　your　specific　question；　rade　General　Secretary；　we　can　make　perhaps　a　modest　reduction　in　the　use　of　light　oils　in　electrical　power　usage；　but　even　now　we　have　a　serious　shortfall　in　electric　power　production；　resulting　in　occasional　brownouts　and　plete　power　outages。　Further　cuts　in　power　generation　will　adversely　affect　such　crucial　State　activities　as　factory　production　and　rail　transport。　You　will　recall　that　three　years　ago　we　experimented　with　altering　the　voltage　of　generated　power　to　conserve　fuels；　and　this　resulted　in　damage　to　electric　motors　throughout　the　Donets　industrial　basin。〃
〃What　about　coal　and　gas？〃
〃rade　General　Secretary；　coal　production　is　already　sixteen　percent　below　planned　output；　and　getting　worse；　which　has　caused　conversion　of　many　coal…fired　boilers　and　power　plants　to　oil。　Moreover；　the　conversion　of　such　facilities　from　oil　back　to　coal　is　costly　and　time　consuming。　Conversion　to　gas　is　a　much　more　attractive　and　cheaper　alternative　that　we　have　been　vigorously　pursuing。　Gas　production　is　also　under…plan；　but　it　is　improving。　We　had　expected　to　exceed　planned　targets　later　thi